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webmaster: Sven F. Crone

Centre for Forecasting
Lancaster University
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M1, M2 and M3 Forecasting Competition Data

Most notably, the data from the three Makridakis & Wheelwright competitions on (univariate) time series prediction.
One focus of research on business forecasting has been empirical validation. Over the past two decades, Spiros Makridakis and Michele Hibon have led groups of researchers from all over the world in conducting comparisons of various forecasting methods. Some of the results of these studies have been surprising. For example, simple methods seem to do at least as well as more complex methods. And, combining forecasts helps, particularly for longer horizons. If your favorite method was not included among those studied, you disagree that the metrics used were right, or you simply don't like the conclusions of the studies, you can conduct your own replication or extension. Data from the M-Competitions has been used by hundreds of researchers.


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